I’m somewhere over the Netherlands at the moment, staring out of the aeroplane window, trying to work out what I’m most excited about when I land in Valencia in two hours’ time. The Rioja and paella are strong contenders, but perhaps the most intriguing element is that this feels like the weekend where the true ABB FIA Formula E World Championship contenders will hit the front.
We’ve witnessed four fantastic races between Diriyah and Rome so far this season; different winners in each, and 10 different drivers finishing on the podium.
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As a result, the standings are remarkably close, with just thirteen points separating leader Sam Bird (Jaguar Racing) at the top to Edoardo Mortara (ROKiT Venturi Racing) down in seventh. Valencia has the ingredients to change that, and provide us with a clearer view of who will be in the running to become the first Formula E World Champion.
There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, it’s expected that the impact of being in Qualifying Group 1 will be reduced. The permanent asphalt of the Circuit Ricardo Tormo circuit should lead to less track evolution during the qualifying sessions, meaning those who are in the top six at the start of the day have a realistic shot of qualifying well.
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So far this season, Mitch Evans’ third and sixth placed finishes in Rome are probably the best double-header weekend any driver has had, and his Jaguar Racing teammate Sam Bird’s second in Rome is easily the strongest result of any driver in Group 1 qualifying. The pattern has tended to be that if you are in Group 1 for qualifying, you won’t be picking up many points that afternoon.
If that does change in Valencia, it will allow the true front-runners to pick up a huge haul of points, and assert their authority in the championship. It’s what DS TECHEETAH's reigning champion Antonio Felix da Costa did so well with his three race wins in a row last season that effectively secured him the title.
The other reason that Valencia will be a true reflection of pace could be the amount of unknowns that are removed. All of the teams have a huge amount of data from running at the track in pre-season testing, which should help them get up to speed more quickly, and be closer to their ultimate pace where the margins will be finer.
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The slight irony is that teams will often test at Valencia without trying to be fast at Valencia! In the past, the track has not been on the Formula E calendar, so although the teams are driving there they focus on making their car fast at the type of circuits that the series will actually visit. Now they need to make the car work on this track!
Who'll be at the sharp end?
Those are the reasons, but who will be out front after the first Formula E races in Spain? Sam Bird and Mitch Evans are the top two in the championship, both are supremely accomplished drivers and I expect them to keep bagging points, but I am yet to be convinced on the Jaguar’s true pace. Rome was difficult to read because of the changeable conditions, which admittedly may appear again in Valencia, but how quick is that Jaguar in the pack?
Stoffel Vandoorne (Mercedes-EQ) was the driver of the weekend in Rome and is fourth in the standings. He took pole position in the first race, got punted down to 13th by Lotterer on the first lap, clambered back up into the top five until his unfortunate crash with Lucas di Grassi (Audi Sport ABT Schaeffler), before going on to win race two. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stretch his legs and get into a real rhythm this weekend.
And finally, Nissan e.dams'Oliver Rowland! I’ve been making the point that he and Nissan are my dark horse for the title since before the first race in Diriyah, and even though the British driver is lying 12th in the championship - 28 points away from his compatriot Bird at the top - so whether it’s naivety or bloody-mindedness, I still think he has a shot!
Aside from a second race in Rome, where he was marginally too aggressive when he punted Nick Cassidy (Envision Virgin Racing) into the wall at Turn 16, every other qualifying or race session has been top drawer. He was leading the first race in Rome and had he not received an over-power penalty and gone on to win, he would be second in the standings.
Despite my bold claims about how crucial this weekend will be, we now know that we won’t yet be halfway through the season after Valencia. The rest of the Season 7 calendar was announced just before I boarded this flight, with a race on the full Monaco circuit, then double headers in Mexico, New York, London and Berlin to come, there are still 270 points up for grabs after this weekend.
So, although I do maintain that this weekend will see the championship picture become clearer, as we start our descent and buckle up for landing in Valencia, we should all be doing the same ahead of the rest of the season, because it will be quite the ride.